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On Nov 6, 2006, at 12:16 PM, Scott Berkun wrote:
> I’ve noticed in the last weeks that one of the new leads in my
> group tends to fudge facts - He makes up statistical correlations
> and repeats them often enough that people, including our bosses,
> take them as fact.

Is the issue that he’s throwing around statistical concepts in an
effort to snow people (”If you can’t dazzle them with
brilliance…”), or that he’s just plain making up fake data?

Either way, it sounds like you need to call him on it, but your
method will need to vary based on which problem you have.

If it’s the latter case, is this outright deceit, or just wishful
thinking? I’d ask him to back things up, and then show causation.
If it’s wishful thinking you’ll need management to understand that
they shouldn’t trust his numbers without verifying. If it’s deceit
you have a bigger (if more obvious) problem.

If it’s just a fire-hose of statistical nonsense, treat it in the
same way as you’d treat a fire-hose of any other types of buzzwords:
figure out who in the organization actually knows something about
statistical methods and get them involved. If the answer is “no one”
and it now falls to you (or you’re bored), read (warning, contains
colorful language), then peruse some of the books listed at the end.

-faisal

_______________________________________________
PM Clinic - www.scottberkun.com/forums/pmclinic/

Hi,

I think you need to collect your own data and present your point.

IMHO, there is no such thing as an unbiased statistic. The data that
we collect, the measure that it used to analyze the data, and the
interpretation of the results are all subjective.

Another point you want to check for is correlation vs causation.
There are many possible reasons that two items may be correlated,
including randomness. What you want to check for is causation, i.e
check if there are other possible causes that could give the same
result.

Here is an example:

Data: Attrition is high in all teams except mine
Conclusion: I am a better manager, thus I should get a higher bonus
Hidden fact: Ratio of senior members to junior members are a lot
higher in my team
Real conclusion: I may be a better or worse manager (this is
unknown), but my team’s composition is better

If you think someone is playing the correlation game (intentionally
or not), then try searching for the causation and present that.

I’m a bit confused over the title and the post though. You say the
data was fudged. By that do you mean the data was made up, or do you
mean that the data was selectively chosen in order to make a point?
If it is the former, then you are talking about a lie, there is no
statistics here.

To summarise, why not take your data and give a presentation that
presents your point as to what you think is the alternative
explanation?

–
Siddharta
http://siddhi.blogspot.com

_______________________________________________
PM Clinic - www.scottberkun.com/forums/pmclinic/

Something you might want to try is to agree on the metrics and
statistics that you are going to measure projects/performance, etc.
on. You could push for using statistics for which the data is clear
and unambiguous and that cannot be manipulated too much. Try to set
an example by publishing your data and stats to a common group (incl
your bosses) in regular intervals. Once you start doing that, you can
push for comparable metrics from everybody including you-know-who.
cheers!
Aravind

Scott Berkun wrote:

Here’s this week’s situation:

I’ve noticed in the last weeks that one of the new leads in my group
tends to fudge facts - He makes up statistical correlations and
repeats them often enough that people, including our bosses, take
them as fact.

The trick that defuses my complaints is that he’s clever enough to
fudge facts in the way people want things to be - making it harder to
refute him in the moment. I’ve voiced polite complaints before, but
he’s continued to do it and no one else has said anything.

How do I confront him, or my superiors, about this without it
seemingly like I’m jealous or working behind his back?

- Signed, Frustrated between lies and statistics (FBLS)
_______________________________________________
PM Clinic - www.scottberkun.com/forums/pmclinic/

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_______________________________________________
PM Clinic - www.scottberkun.com/forums/pmclinic/

Here’s this week’s situation:

I’ve noticed in the last weeks that one of the new leads in my group
tends to fudge facts - He makes up statistical correlations and
repeats them often enough that people, including our bosses, take
them as fact.

The trick that defuses my complaints is that he’s clever enough to
fudge facts in the way people want things to be - making it harder to
refute him in the moment. I’ve voiced polite complaints before, but
he’s continued to do it and no one else has said anything.

How do I confront him, or my superiors, about this without it
seemingly like I’m jealous or working behind his back?

- Signed, Frustrated between lies and statistics (FBLS)

_______________________________________________
PM Clinic - www.scottberkun.com/forums/pmclinic/